The IESO’s 2024 Annual Planning Outlook identifies system needs and planned actions from 2025 to 2050 that are needed to ensure the reliability, affordability and sustainability of Ontario’s electricity system. With significant progress being made to address these needs, the IESO is also providing an update of its emissions forecast for the sector.

1. Electricity demand forecasts continue to show steady growth of 2% per year

Similar to last year’s outlook, demand remains on course to rise steadily year over year, with total demand increasing 60 per cent over the next 25 years. This is driven by a multitude of factors: new industrial projects, including mining and electric vehicle manufacturing; greenhouse expansion; electrification of transportation; and continued population growth.

2. By 2030, demand for electricity will peak in both winter and summer

Today, electricity demand peaks in the summer months, driven largely by air conditioners. With energy demand growing in the agricultural/greenhouse sector – where consumption is higher in winter – along with electrification of home heating and transportation, Ontario is expected to become dual peaking by 2030, with winter demand peaks catching up to summer peaks.

3. With reliability needs in the 2020s largely addressed, the IESO is shifting its focus to address overall energy production needs in the next decade.

While recent procurements have focused on capacity to meet demand during system peak hours, a need for more overall energy production emerges in the 2030s – even with new planned nuclear facilities and other initiatives as outlined in Powering Ontario’s Growth. The IESO has ongoing competitive procurements to help address these shortfalls – including upcoming procurements that seek supply from wind, solar, hydro and biofuel generations. Future supply decisions will be needed to ensure that Ontario’s grid grows alongside the economy and demand, keeping options open as technology evolves while safeguarding against over-building supply.

4. Plans are being prepared to deliver this new supply to communities across the province

As more electricity is needed to support economic growth and increasing demand, the IESO is recommending transmission projects that will deliver the new supply to where it is needed as well as replace and upgrade aging infrastructure.

5. Energy efficiency is central to the IESO’s plans to manage demand growth affordably and sustainably

Demand today is already roughly 15 per cent lower than it otherwise would have been as a result of energy efficiency programs and regulations. Future Save on Energy Program Savings projections, from 2025-2050, are based on current programs and incentives. New and enduring programs are expected to be in place starting in 2025 and will tap into greater levels of energy efficiency potential.

6. Ontario’s electricity sector is poised to enable substantial GHG reductions 

By the end of this decade, emissions from Ontario’s electricity system will start to level out. In this scenario, gas generation will be required into the late 2030s and beyond for reliability. Yet at the same time, the electricity system is set to enable substantial emissions reductions in other sectors such as transportation and steel manufacturing. By 2035, Ontario’s electricity sector will reduce emissions by at least three times the amount it produces.

7. As more non-emitting supply is added to the grid, each kilowatt-hour becomes cleaner

Ontario’s clean energy advantage is growing. As demand increases and more non-emitting supply comes online, every kilowatt-hour used to power a vehicle, home, or factory will be less emissions-intensive.