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The period from December 2011 to May 2013 poses no new reliability or adequacy concerns for Ontario's power system. During this time period, a number of decisions will need to be made in order to manage the future of reliability in local areas and the IESO’s ability balance the system in real time.
Generation resources will continue to grow with the anticipated return of two refurbished Bruce nuclear units, the addition of approximately 400 MW megawatts (MW) of gas-fired generation, and more than 800 MW of renewable generation. Ontario will see over 4,300 MW of wind and solar generation by May 2013.
In terms of coal, the installed capacity of coal-fired generation will be reduced to 3,504 MW when two additional units at Nanticoke (980 MW) are shut down. Ontario continues to be on track to transition off coal in 2014. Surplus baseload generation (SBG) is and will remain an ongoing concern over the next 18 months because of the current volumes of variable generation, lower off-peak demand, and the return of the two nuclear units. To manage this, the IESO will be relying on coal generation as one of the options to providing flexibility over the next 18 months.
The IESO is facilitating innovations in the way the province’s bulk power system is operated, with an ongoing focus on reliability and efficiency. Maximizing the flexibility of all resources, including large amounts of renewable generation will help address SBG and other operational concerns such as matching generation to demand when demand quickly ramps up and down. The IESO is actively developing new operational policies and processes. One of the top priorities is implementing the forecasting, visibility, and dispatch of variable generation resources, first on an hourly basis, then on a 5 minute constrained schedule.
In the next 18 months, Ontario will first see a slight decline in electricity demand as a result of a weak economy, followed by a modest 1.1 per cent increase. Increase in conservation programs and embedded generation capacity will moderate the demand for grid-supplied electricity. Peak demands will increase slightly due to the growth of Ontario’s home building and construction sectors.
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DEMAND OUTLOOK - WINTER 2011-12
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Demand Forecast
The mid-term forecasts contained in the Power Outlooks are determined based on econometric models and weather scenarios.
These forecasts are superseded by nearer-term forecasts that are used in the operation of the power grid, and employ similar-day scenarios.
Each day's projected peak is posted on the Price and Demand page.
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SUPPLY OUTLOOK - WINTER 2011-12
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Matching Supply and Demand
The resource scenario shown above incorporates planned outages that generators have requested in order to perform maintenance on their equipment.
Should the IESO determine that there is a potential reliability concern due to a generator outage, the outage co-ordination process allows for the IESO to reject or recall outages.
In addition, Ontario has the capability to import electricity. |
These supply forecasts are superseded by nearer-term forecasts, that are available 34 days before the day-at-hand.
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