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The outlook for Ontario’s electricity system over the next 18 months remains positive. The expected addition of 1,900 megawatts (MW) of new and refurbished supply will reinforce and solidify Ontario's electricity supply situation.
Most of the new supply projects are currently being commissioned or are under construction, and two-thirds of the new facilities comprise a mix of wind, water, gas and biomass projects. When complete, these new clean energy projects will supply communities across the province, and will support the Province's sustainability goals by displacing more carbon-intensive fuel sources. These new energy supply projects will be complemented by the return to service of two refurbished nuclear units at the Bruce plant in 2011.
Over the same period, Ontario's transmission system is expected to reliably serve predicted demand levels. Several transmission reinforcement projects are planned to come in service over the next 18 months to ensure reliable local supply and provide additional transmission capacity for future growth.
While the Bank of Canada has declared the recession over, the economic recovery in Ontario is unlikely to stimulate a significant rebound in electricity demand. Over the coming months, industrial energy consumption will continue to be hampered by the high dollar and rationalization within the manufacturing sector. After a drop of 5.7 per cent in 2009, overall, demand for electricity is expected to rebound slightly in 2010, growing by 0.4 per cent. Demand is expected to further increase by 0.8 per cent in 2011 as the economic recovery gains momentum within the industrial sectors.
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DEMAND OUTLOOK - WINTER 2009/10
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Demand Forecast
The mid-term forecasts contained in the Power Outlooks are determined based on econometric models and weather scenarios.
These forecasts are superseded by nearer-term forecasts that are used in the operation of the power grid, and employ similar-day scenarios.
Each day's projected peak is posted on the Price and Demand page.
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SUPPLY OUTLOOK - WINTER 2009/10
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Matching Supply and Demand
The resource scenario shown above incorporates planned outages that generators have requested in order to perform maintenance on their equipment.
Should the IESO determine that there is a potential reliability concern due to a generator outage, the outage co-ordination process allows for the IESO to reject or recall outages.
In addition, Ontario has the capability to import electricity. |
These supply forecasts are superseded by nearer-term forecasts, that are available 34 days before the day-at-hand.
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