Pathways to Decarbonization
December 15, 2022
The Pathways to Decarbonization report, undertaken at the request of the Minister of Energy, finds that a moratorium on new gas generation could begin in 2027, as long as sufficient non-emitting supply were to be in place to meet growing electricity demand. By 2035, the system could also be less reliant on the natural gas fleet, lowering emissions by 60 per cent below the IESO’s original forecasts.
The report also finds that attaining a decarbonized electricity sector by 2050, alongside aggressive electrification demand targets, would require a system more than double the size it is today at an estimated cost of around $400 billion. These costs could be offset by lower overall energy costs as consumers reduce their reliance on fossil fuels and through energy efficiency.
The IESO has identified a number of “no regret” actions that could be taken as the province moves towards decarbonization. These actions include: accelerating efforts to acquire non-emitting supply; expanding energy-efficiency programming; beginning planning and siting work for nuclear, storage, hydro and transmission projects which require long-lead times to develop; galvanizing collaboration amongst stakeholders; and, continuing support for low-carbon fuels such as hydrogen.